COP 28 – Mixed Results on the World’s Existential Threat

COP28 in Dubai, upon entrance, was reminiscent of a world expo, which was unsurprising since it was on the grounds of the Dubai 2020 Expo. But despite the heat and enormous distances between the ends of the official Blue Zone and the less restricted Green Zone – which fortunately were adjacent this year – a phenomenal amount of collaboration and deal-making took place.

The meeting’s top takeaway was the conclusion of the first-ever international agreement to tackle fossil fuels as the main driver of climate change. This is the first time since UN climate negotiations launched three decades ago that transitioning away from “fossil fuels" appeared in a COP’s formal outcome document. For those not closely following climate change negotiations year after year, this may seem incredible, but it’s true: negotiators up until now have looked in every direction but squarely at how to finally end the world’s addiction to oil, gas, and coal.

Despite this, the final document was weakened by negotiators who softened the language proposed and backed by country blocs like the Association of Small Island States and thousands of NGOs and representatives of non-fossil fuel businesses. Many felt that the talks were a failure because of extensive loopholes that allow for the production and use of fossil fuels to continue increasing.

On the other hand, many of us found this year to be a turning point when it came to renewable energy and a host of integrated solutions to reduce temperature rise and its impacts, presenting numerous opportunities for values-aligned investors. The COP’s Global Stocktake, which sets out the ambitious actions needed to meet Paris Agreement Goals, has called for a tripling of renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency improvements by 2030, accelerating the phase-down of coal power and phasing out fossil fuel subsidies. Called the UAE Consensus, it covers a wide range of climate issues including transport and nature. Its conclusions should send a strong message to asset owners that they should continue to invest in both renewable energy and energy efficiency through either impact investments or philanthropy. For example, I learned at COP that much of the wind turbine technology set up years ago now faces huge maintenance challenges, so solutions in this area could present important opportunities for investment.

Another breakthrough at COP was the linking of efforts to fight climate change and the protection of nature, two areas that have historically been played off against each other for funding. We saw this at the pavilions hosted by the Nature Positive Initiative, the Global Commons Alliance, and Ocean Initiatives which held dozens of events that illuminated the prominent place that nature has come to play at UNFCCC COPs. This link between climate and nature was further underscored by agreements inside and outside the formal climate negotiations which included new commitments to reduce methane emissions, protect forests, and create more sustainable food systems. Nature-based climate solutions are an area that could absorb significant funding, and philanthropy and asset owners should look to exciting opportunities that currently exist in regenerative agriculture, sustainable ranching, and re-use economies.

I was also heartened to see the creation of a new fund on Loss and Damage, which was an early COP win. Although the amount pledged was disappointing, it is an important step aimed at addressing the increasingly severe impacts facing vulnerable countries. I’ve seen just how innovations in this area are crucial to fairness in coping with climate impacts, as we at Rockefeller Philanthropy Advisors host a Scottish government-funded pool of capital on Loss and Damage. Lessons from our “first mover” fund could be applied to significant funding that will be deployed in the future. We hope to crowd in more capital to ours and this new larger one that will be hosted, at least initially, by the World Bank.

Finally, the most inspiring venues and discussions were, as usual, those led by youth, and often focused on bringing a justice and rights lens to the path forward on curbing global warming. They have persistently pointed out that climate change is a force multiplier to threats to human rights and democracy; that climate change impacts must be viewed with an intersectional lens; and that more support for youth-led movement building is an essential part of keeping people and planet safe.

These voices are more crucial than ever because capture by special interests has only grown over time. Fossil fuel lobbyists – who have officially registered for every COP since the start, and who accounted for over 2400 registrations at COP28 – panicked as the talks progressed over the two weeks in Dubai, overemphasizing the need for fossil fuels far into the future and solutions like expensive carbon capture technology, which the UN climate science panel has already stressed cannot take the place of eliminating fossil fuel use.

Next year’s COP29 will be hosted by Azerbaijan, another state whose primary source of revenue is oil, so most eyes are already focused on COP30 to be hosted by Brazil in the town of Belem in the Amazon. Our future will depend on the outcome of COP30 to include sufficiently strong intergovernmental agreement and many more opportunities for those in philanthropy and impact investing to collaborate.